Within the RAIN project, ESSL researchers Tomáš Púčik and Pieter Groenemeijer have produced projections of severe weather changes according to the EuroCordex regional climate model ensemble.
The ESSL researchers found that the consensus of the model projections suggested a 10 – 30% increase of severe convective weather events across much of Europe and 30 – 60 % in south-central Europe in the business-as-usual rcp8.5 scenario by the end of the century. These increases would be about half as large in the rcp4.5 scenario that assumes moderate climate change mitigation efforts.
RAIN project partners of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Freie Universität Berlin and the Technical University Delft have investigated other hazards, such as wind storms, floods, forest fire and winter weather.
For more information on the RAIN project, projections of other hazards, and a link to the full report: