The 7th European Conference on Severe Storms is supported by:
The 7th European Conference on Severe Storms is supported by:
Monday 3 June 2013
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9:00 |
Opening Session |
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Climate and Severe Storms Chair: Harold Brooks |
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09:30 |
keynote talk Convective storm hazards from a reinsurance perspective (259) |
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10:00 |
Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States in recent years (42) |
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10:15 |
Estimating severe thunderstorm risk in North America (44) |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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11:15 |
Changes in hailstone size distributions in relation with a rise in the freezing level
(20) |
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11:30 |
Changes of thunderstorm and hail potential in climate change (105) |
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11:45 |
Climate-driven increase in the variability and multi-year mean level of severe thunderstorm-related losses and thunderstorm forcing environments in the U.S. since 1970 (186) |
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12:00 |
Modeling and quantification of severe hailstorm risk in Spain from re/insurance perspectives (2) |
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12:15 |
A new stochastic event catalogue for hail in Europe (139) |
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12:30 |
Assessment of the European severe convective storm climatology using reanalysis data (183) |
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12:45 |
Lunch break |
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Session 2 Severe Storm Damage and Impacts Chair: Jenni Rauhala |
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14:30 |
keynote talk Severe weather in North America (57) |
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15:00 |
Obstacles and barriers in research work on historical tornadoes in Central Europe (248) |
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15:15 |
Hail Risk Areas in Austria, on the basis of reports 1971-2011 and Weather Radar Images 2002-2011 (50) |
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15:30 |
Integrated In Situ, DOW, and damage observations in tornadoes (3) |
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15:45 |
The effects of extreme weather on the European transport system: an analysis based on media reports (226) |
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16:00 |
Coffee break |
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Session 3 Floods Chair: Climent Ramis |
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16:45 |
Linking meteorological conditions to flood and flash flood occurrence - why is it so difficult? (24) |
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17:00 |
A 10-year radar-based precipitation reanalysis for Germany – first steps and future directions (104) |
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17:15 |
Statistics of extreme areal rainfall depths based on radar observations (160) |
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17:30 |
Analysing spatial distribution of damaging floods and mass movements in Portugal from 1865 to 2010 (DISASTER database): geographical factors, weather types and human impacts. (225) |
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17:45 |
Flash floods evolution in Catalonia: from precipitation to societal aspects (233) |
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18:00 |
Flood and flash flood resulting from convective storms in the SWIO islands and their impacts on the local community: Case studies from Mauritius (257) |
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18:15 |
End of Monday's Scientific Programme |
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19:00 |
Ice breaker at City Hall |
Tuesday 4 June 2013
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Session 4 Storm and Tornado Dynamics 1 Chair: Yvette Richardson |
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09:00 |
keynote talk History of storm and tornado dynamics (263) |
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09:30 |
A comparison of buoyancy and baroclinity within tornadic and non-tornadic VORTEX2 storms (111) |
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09:45 |
New insights about tornadogenesis in supercells obtained from idealized three-dimensional numerical simulations involving a heat source and heat sink in a vertically sheared environment (22) |
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10:00 |
The role of 3D vortex-vortex interaction and superhelicity in tornado maintenance and development (54) |
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10:15 |
Understanding the effects of horizontal convective rolls on the organization of low-level vorticity in simulated supercell thunderstorms. (79) |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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Session 5 Forecasting I Chair: Chris Nowotarski |
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11:15 |
Nowcasting system at Danish Meteorological Institute (165) |
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11:30 |
Nowcasting of severe weather at DWD using remote sensing and nowcast product data (48) |
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11:45 |
Experimental forecasting of severe storms in Europe: a summary of the first ESSL Testbed (179) |
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12:00 |
On the identification of synoptic-scale controls associated with the presence or absence of tornado outbreaks (109) |
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12:15 |
What is the uncertainty of weather warnings? Can we predict it? How can this uncertainty estimate be used? (253) |
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12:30 |
Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe
(70) |
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12:45 |
Lunch break |
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14:30 |
Poster Session 1 |
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Session 6 Storm and Tornado Dynamics 2 Chair: Paul Markowski |
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16:45 |
keynote talk Recent developments in our understanding of tornadic storms (239) |
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17:15 |
The role of ambient horizontal vorticity in near-ground rotation of supercells (246) |
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17:30 |
An investigation of the tornadic stage of the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 using EnKF assimilation of mobile radar data collected during VORTEX2 (242) |
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17:45 |
Photogrammetric analysis of Tsukuba tornado (227) |
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18:00 |
Tornadogenesis in a high-resolution simulation of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell (167) |
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18:15 |
End of Tuesday's Scientific Programme |
Wednesday 5 June 2013
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Session 7 (part 1) Lightning and Microphysics Chair: Jean Dessens |
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09:00 |
keynote talk Lightning applications in weather and climate research (34) |
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09:30 |
The impact of multiple rain classes on surface DSDs in idealized simulations of supercell storms (149) |
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09:45 |
An overview of the electrical activity recorded during PEACH, the atmospheric electricity component of HYMEX (169) |
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10:00 |
The three-dimensional microphysical and dynamical structure of convective storms (106) |
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10:15 |
Overshooting top: Physics and Dynamics (84) |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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Session 8 Remote sensing of storms: satellite and lightning |
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11:15 |
Geostationary Lightning Observations in Support of NWC and Severe Weather Monitoring (16) |
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11:30 |
Analysis of lightning activity during thunderstorms with the overshooting tops (13) |
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11:45 |
High-resolution climatology of lightning in Central Europe (91) |
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12:00 |
The 2.5-minute Meteosat 10 rapid scan experiment and storm-top observations (67) |
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12:15 |
The Comparison of GLD360 and EUCLID Lightning Location Systems in Europe (36) |
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12:30 |
Lightning channels emerging from the top of thunderstorm clouds (189) |
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12:45 |
Lunch break |
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Session 9 Remote sensing: satellite and radar Chair: Martin Setvák |
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14:30 |
keynote talk Collaborative adaptive weather radar network for major metropolitan regions: The Helsinki implementation (265) |
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15:00 |
Tornadogenic versus non tornadogenic supercell discrimination using radar in Portugal (143) |
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15:15 |
Lagrangian diagnostics of convective cells using combined satellite, lightning and radar observations (93) |
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15:30 |
A radar-based climatology of tropopause folds and deep convection (240) |
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15:45 |
Cold rings and cold U/V shapes as seen atop of deep convective clouds in infrared satellite imagery in years 2006-2012 over Slovenia (216) |
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16:00 |
Dense weather radar network for observation of severe storm in Helsinki metropolitan area (158) |
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16:15 |
Presentation on ECSS Special Issue of Atmospheric Research |
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16:30 |
End of Wednesday's Scientific Programme |
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18:30 |
Conference Dinner |
Thursday 6 June 2013
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Session 10 Advances in Numerical Modelling and Forecasting Chair: Johannes Dahl |
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09:00 |
keynote talk Toward Developing a Storm-scale Prediction System for Hazardous Weather: An Update (243) |
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09:30 |
Evolution of Modeled Convective Storms with and without Lightning Data Assimilation (107) |
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09:45 |
Explicit simulations of mixed-phase electrified clouds of the HyMeX-SOP1 experiment with the mesoscale model MesoNH (231) |
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10:00 |
Numerical simulation of squall line by using detailed microphysics (15) |
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10:15 |
August 1st 2012 convective episode over eastern France and western Switzerland: observations, forecasts and model deficiencies (101) |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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Session 11 Forecasting II Chair: Pertti Nurmi |
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11:15 |
Analyzing targeting guidance for a DTS-MEDEX-2009 case study: misleading sensitivity products (136) |
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11:30 |
Validation of MPEF GII product against sounding and lightning data - implications on convection forecast (137) |
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11:45 |
Comparison of two mesoscale LAM-EPS generation methods for the prediction of heavy rains over the Western Mediterranean: the HyMeX IOP8 event (133) |
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12:00 |
A study of the 21 March 2012 tornadic quasi linear convective system in Catalonia (147) |
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12:15 |
Forecaster Tornado Warning Decision Processes in PARISE 2012 (112) |
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12:30 |
Experiences in using simulator for convection and nowcasting training (198) |
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12:45 |
Lunch break |
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14:30 |
Poster Session 2 |
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Session 12 Societal Impacts and Public Weather Understanding Chair: Michael Kunz |
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16:45 |
keynote talk Severe Convective Storms in the European Societal Context (190) |
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17:15 |
Vaisala's new Airport Lightning Information System (ALIS): Using Vaisala's GLD360 to improve cloud-to-ground lightning warnings, present weather reporting, and low level windshear situational awareness at airports anywhere in the world (131) |
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17:30 |
Cold season thunderstorms in Finland and their effect on aviation safety (37) |
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17:45 |
Perception and use of severe weather warnings by emergency management professionals in Germany (29) |
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18:00 |
Lay severe weather competence - A pilot study on Brazil, India, and Germany (87) |
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18.30 |
End of Thursday's Scientific Programme |
Friday 7 June 2013
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Session 13 Severe Storm Interactions with Large Scales Chair: Evelyne Richard |
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09:00 |
Medicane risk in a changing climate (43) |
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09:15 |
Satellite-based climatology of (sub-)tropical cyclones in Europe (166) |
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09:30 |
Past and projected future changes of North Atlantic polar low frequency (159) |
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09:45 |
The influence of mesoscale mid-level vortices on deep convection and implications for tropical cyclogenesis (19) |
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Session 14 Forecasting III Chair: Bogdan Antonescu |
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10:00 |
keynote talk The NWS Storm Prediction Center: An overview, and a look at new techniques (264) |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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11:15 |
Near Term Convective Precipitation Forecasting using Real-Time Lightning Data, Observations, and Radar (7) |
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11:30 |
Improving forecasters skill by introducing convective initiation at DWD (49) |
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11:45 |
Thunderstorm forecasting by a fuzzy logic combination of model data (129) |
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12:00 |
Significant hail producing storms in Finland: Storm morphology and environment (39) |
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12:15 |
Severe weather forecasting demonstration project: a sub project for Eastern Africa (146) |
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12:30 |
Object-based fuzzy logic fusion of multiple data sources for nowcasting of CI and storm lifecycles (62) |
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13:15 |
Closing Session |
Session 1: Tuesday 14:30 - 16:45
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Posters of Session 1 Climate and severe storms |
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Climatic change adaptation amidst other environmental hazards (8) |
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Diurnal variation of thunderstorms and meteorological conditions observed during the longest thunderstorms in Northern and Central Europe (21) |
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Determination of the area’s most exposed to the hail damage in the continental part of Croatia (23) |
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The application of selected methods for detection of tornadoes in Poland (case studies) (26) |
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Long-term changes in frequency of thunderstorms in the Baltic countries, 1950-2004 (32) |
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Storm water and climatic change in peri – Urban cities in Sub – Saharan Africa (35) |
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Anomalies in frequency / intensity correlations in hail climatology (41) |
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Hail storms over Switzerland: Spatial and temporal characteristics derived from radar-based hail products (47) |
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Climatic characteristics of thunderstorms in Latvia (59) |
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Wide-spread severe convective storm events in Bulgaria (1991-2010) (71) |
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Radar-based hail climatology for the Czech territory (72) |
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Sounding-derived parameters associated with tornado occurrence in Poland and universal tornadic index (81) |
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Downscaling past severe storms in Finland (97) |
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Comparison of thermal images and NDVI of multispectral high resolution images, a contribution to the study of urban climate (116) |
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Mitigating the impact of environmental degradation on climatic change and global warming (125) |
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Modelling of the hail hazard in Germany (126) |
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Radar-based hail statistics over Belgium (130) |
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Trends of natural disasters and morbidities in Uganda (155) |
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Tornado and waterspout climatological risk for Greece (184) |
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Hail occurrence in Poland (1966-2006) (192) |
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The relationship between tropical storm and precipitation patterns of heavy rain in Kochi, Japan (207) |
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Comprehensive comparison of tornado and earthquake statistics (209) |
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Variability of strong convective storms in Ukraine (215) |
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Study of the 5th July 2012 severe hailstorm in Pla d'Urgell (NE Spain) (235) |
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Composite mean and anomaly of synoptic conditions for waterspout days over South Aegean Sea (S. Greece) (236) |
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Using the European Severe Weather Database for climatological analyses (252) |
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Investigation of high shear, low CAPE severe convection in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States (260) |
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An analysis of convective parameters in the Northern Hemisphere from the ERA Interim re-analysis and CMIP5 projections (262) |
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Posters of Session 2 Storm damage and impacts |
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Convective activity over Ukraine (40) |
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Effects of hail damage mitigation on grapevines crop in Mendoza, Argentina, by atmospheric weather modification with cloud seeding (98) |
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Severe storm reports of the 17th Century: Examples from the UK and France (100) |
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TRUSTED SPOTTER NETWORK AUSTRIA – New Developments and Applications at ESWD (171) |
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Reanalysis of the fourth-deadliest tornado in European history (176) |
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A derecho in northeastern Europe on 8 August 2010(177) |
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Application of radar observation data to predict a landslide due to localized heavy rain (197) |
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Information system „The Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena» in Ukraine (217) |
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Recent observations of meteotsunamis on the Finnish coast (223) |
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Damage surveys at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (261) |
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Posters of Session 3 Floods |
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Extreme precipitation and related weather types over Croatia in the period 2001-2011 (38) |
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Calculation characteristics of catastrophic floods on the mountain rivers of the Crimean peninsula (55) |
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Climate extremes and water balance in the city of Sao Paulo - SP, Brazil: Subsidy for public policies (113) |
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Mathematical model for calculation of the maximal flood runoff of the ungauged watersheds (115) |
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On the extreme summer precipitation in Ukraine over the last decades (144) |
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Assessment of the skill of nowcasting to predict high-impact heavy precipitation events (145) |
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Intense precipitation patterns by means of Concentration Index – examples of two Brazilian sites (156) |
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Meteorological Causes of Flashflood in Pila village (Slovakia) on 07/06/2011 (170) |
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The analysis of heavy precipitation events over small mountain catchments (181) |
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Floods in Southeastern Brazil- Observations, Simulation, Projection and Uncertainties (185) |
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Flash Flood in Madeira Island in autumn 2012 (188) |
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A severe convective episode triggered by accumulated precipitation in the coast of Parana State, Brazil (203) |
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A study of a flood episode in Basque Country (221) |
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Analysing spatial distribution of damaging floods and mass movements in Portugal from 1865 to 2010 (DISASTER database): geographical factors, weather types and human impacts (225) |
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Posters of Session 4 and 6 Storm and tornado dynamics |
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Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of waterspouts in the Adriatic (2001 – 2011 preliminary climatology) (14) |
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Severe thunderstorm observation and regional modeling pilot field experiment 2012 and data assimilation impacts (17) |
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Mountain waves forcing deep convection at the East of the highest Andes tops (52) |
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A Subtropical Squall line in Southern China: Kinematic Structure Retrieved from Dual-Doppler Data (58) |
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Using self-organizing maps to classify supercell proximity soundings from the rapid update cycle (51) |
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The derecho of 8 August 2010 in Estonia (80) |
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Vapor volume reduction - an additional factor that contributes to the central low pressure in a cyclone (85) |
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Derecho-like event in Bulgaria on 20 July 2011 (86) |
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Numerical simulation of supercell tornadogenesis: The 2012 Tsukuba F3 tornado event (117) |
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Hail storms genesis and evolution in the Andes Region (Mendoza, Argentina) derived from radar data
(123) |
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Observational Investigation of a Tornadic HP Supercell Storm in China (142) |
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Structure and Formation Mechanisms of Two Adjacent Shear Lines Accompanied by Wind Gusts in the Japan Sea Coastal Region during a Cold-Air Outbreak (172) |
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LEWP along squall line(180) |
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Analysis of simulated precipitation in a 2D non-hydrostatic model (220) |
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The angular propulsion engine – a missing link in tornadogenesis? (234) |
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Thunderstorm interception with a mobile automated surface weather station in Brazil (241) |
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Comparison of Three Summer Bow Echoes in Serbia (245) |
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Toy model simulations of baroclinic and barotropic processes in downdrafts (247) |
Session 2: Thursday 14:30 - 16:45
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Posters of Sessions 5, 11, and 14 Forecasting |
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Integrating satellite-, radar, NWP-data and orographic information for severe convection nowcasting over the Alpine area (18) |
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NowCastMIX – automatic integrated warnings from continuously monitored nowcasting systems based on a fuzzy-logic approach with optimized estimates of storm cell vectors (65) |
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SCENE: convective cell identification and nowcasting using multi-source data (69) |
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Re-analysis of a high-end severe weather event on 18 August 1986 (75) |
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Simulation of the hail storms with the COSMO NWP model (76) |
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Statistical model of convection (78) |
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Estimating the probability of convection events from statistical analysis of temperature and humidity vertical profiles, shear and helicity (82) |
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Radar-based Precipitation Nowcast at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) (102) |
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The OASE project: Object-based Analysis and Seamless prediction (134) |
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Detection of mesocyclone signatures in the 3D Doppler data of the DWD radar network (135) |
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Severe storm in the western coast of Lithuania on 6 August 2012 (138) |
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The Fitzroy Stormglass - a europeanwide old instrument of weather forecasting (140) |
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Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda (141) |
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Development of a multilayer perceptron based artificial neural network model to asses the intensity of mesoscale convective systems from reanalyzed data set (168) |
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Applying Mean-Shift – Clustering for 3D object detection in remote sensing data (175) |
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The use of forecasted radar reflectivity with hail detection algorithm (182) |
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Verification of multi-categorical thunderstorm forecasts at the European Storm Forecast Experiment over the period 2009-2013 (191) |
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Forecast of Severe Weather in Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre based on different kind of meteorological information (193) |
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Evaluation of Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Prediction in Mendoza Argentina (194) |
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Linear and non-linear methods to evaluate the usefulness of meteorological station data for thunderstorm nowcasting (201) |
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Short range forecasting and nowcasting of severe weather operational products developed in UHMI (206) |
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Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in Central Europe by extrapolation methods (210) |
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Tornado and Severe Hail Environments of Turkey (211) |
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Probabilistic rainfall warning system with an interactive user interface (214) |
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Can a physics-based algorithm correctly analyze severe convective wind gusts? (237) |
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Severe squall lines in Hungary. Is it viable to use a simple convective parameter check-list based on hydrostatic NWP in operational forecasting? (238) |
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Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D (258) |
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Posters of Session 7 Lightning and microphysics |
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Wintertime lightning in Finland in 2003-2007 (5) |
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Relationship between lightning characteristics and radar estimated parameters during pre-severe and severe stages of hail producing thunderstorms developed over Bulgaria (63) |
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Regionalization of cloud-to-ground lightning in Iberia (73) |
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Modeling of cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Portugal (74) |
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Analysis of lightning flash characteristics in Central Europe (92) |
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A modeling study to evaluate the silver iodide dispersion from ground generators seeding flares (94) |
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Characteristics of lightning behavior in hailstorms and hail properties in storms with overshooting tops (95) |
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Detecting and forecasting severe storms using lightning data (127) |
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Electrical and microphysical characteristics of a winter storm over Colorado (150) |
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Operational programme for the exchange of lightning location data: feasible or not? (161) |
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Characteristics of Drop Size Distribution observed by dense disdrometer network and Ku band radar in Tokyo metroporitan area during TOMACS (195) |
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Four Year Lightning Climatology in the Basque Country (222) |
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Analysing spatial distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning in Portugal: patterns identification and relationship with geographical factors (224) |
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Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of cloud-to-ground lightning in Romania (228) |
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Posters of Sessions 8 and 9 Remote sensing of storms |
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Meteosat Convective Initiation Product and environmental parameters - in case of severe and non-severe thunderstorms (61) |
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First experiments with the „Rapid Development Thunderstorm“ algorithm (89) |
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Properties of embedded warm areas and surrounding cold rings and cold-Us (96) |
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C-band dual-polarization weather radar hail signatures observed in South Finland (128) |
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Estimation of Stability Indices from ATOVS/NOAA and ATOVS/METOP measurements over Ukraine (151) |
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Characteristics and properties of overshooting tops (132) |
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Synthetic NWC-SAF products for regional NWP forecasts of summer convection over Central Europe (153) |
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Validation of satellite-based CI detection of convective storms via backward trajectories (164) |
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Automatic CB detection for METAR messages in Finnish Meteorological Institute (200) |
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Continuous measuring of vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor applied to obtain stability indices (204) |
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Radar derived storm properties over central Greece (219) |
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Radar detection of local severe storms in Austria and their impact to aviation. (244) |
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Detection of cloud convection from COMS (249) |
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Characteristics of Overshooting Tops derived from MeteosatSeviri data (251) |
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Posters of Session 10 Advances in numerical modelling and forecasting |
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Simulation of a Severe Thunderstorm Event over Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model, During SAARC STORM Pilot Field Experiment 2011 (6) |
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Comparison of Simulations using WRF_ARW and WRF_NMM Model for Local Severe Storms over Bangladesh (10) |
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Impact of Data Assimilation on Simulation of Thunderstorm Events over Bangladesh using WRF 3DVARDA Technique (33) |
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Forecasting severe convection with a high-resolution local model ensemble (27) |
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Case study: derecho event in Estonia 08 August 2010 - Modelling derecho dynamics with NWP model HARMONIE (28) |
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Towards a two-moment bulk microphysical parameterization of hail with explicit liquid water fraction (53) |
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Electrification of thunderstorms developed over Bulgaria - combined analysis of radar data and numerical simulations by MésoNH (64) |
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The major hail days of 1988-2010 in Southwestern France (103) |
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Analysis of the 4th October 2007 squall line predictability by means of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (77) |
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High-resolution model evaluation of convective storm evolution using precipitation radar data (108) |
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COSMO-CZ-EPS – the first evaluation (148) |
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CAPS Storm-scale ensemble forecasting for the NOAA HWT 2013 Spring Experiment (187) |
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Heavy Rain Forecast Improvement with Radar Data Assimilation (196) |
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Sensitivity of WRF data assimilation for heavy rainfall event over the territory of Armenia (212) |
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New radar forward operator and first experiences of LETKF radar volume data assimilation within the convection-allowing NWP model COSMO-DE (229) |
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Forecasting extreme weather events for Mendoza Argentina (230) |
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Posters of Session 12 Societal impacts and public weather understanding |
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Disaster risk reduction efforts and factors affecting flood disaster management: A case study of Katakwi district-Olupe and Ngariam Camps (11) |
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Exploring the Constraints and Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation (12) |
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An assessment of weather warnings communication products (30) |
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Increasing frequency and intensity of thunderstorms and cyclones: Environmental and socio-economic impacts in India (46) |
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Impact assessment of thunderstorms in Portugal in the 2003-2011 period: overall characterization and analysis of a noteworthy case study in Lisbon area (83) |
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Can lightning really hit you? Risk, damage and preparedness surveys in India, Brazil, and Austria (88) |
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Extreme events in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP) - SP, Brazil: public subsidy policies (114) |
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The impact of future thunderstorm activity on the air traffic system (152) |
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The effect of climate change adaptation on rural community livelihoods (154) |
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Sustainable Natural Hazard Mitigation (163) |
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Estimating road accident responsiveness to bad weather and weather warnings (218) |
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Statistical Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events and their Impact on the City of Bogota (250) |
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Lightning-related Fatalities and Injuries in Turkey (256) |
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Posters of Session 13 Severe storm interactions with large scales |
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Synoptic conditions of the occurrence of hail in central Europe (4) |
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Understanding the special features of cyclone Aila (2009) after landfall (31) |
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Relationships between the cyclones of southern origin and thunderstorms in Estonia (90) |
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Synoptic-scale characteristics in European derecho events (162) |
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TA significant late-winter severe weather outbreak in subtropical South America in the synoptic and climatological contexts (213) |
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Environment of tornadogenesis in outer rainband of tropical cyclone (205) |
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Retrospective analysis of synoptic favourable conditions for deep convective events in the Mediterranean Sea (232) |
