{"id":867,"date":"2016-06-06T19:35:59","date_gmt":"2016-06-06T19:35:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/?p=867"},"modified":"2016-06-06T19:42:50","modified_gmt":"2016-06-06T19:42:50","slug":"an-impressive-cosmo-de-eps-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/?p=867","title":{"rendered":"An impressive COSMO DE-EPS forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last Saturday unorganized convection was dominating in a low-shear environment, but a few cells became severe and some of them produced large hail according to the ESWD. One outstanding development occured in the border region of the southernmost Netherlands and neighbouring Germany.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, COSMO DE-EPS produced nearly perfect forecasts of this development in three consecutive initialization times (see example for 06 UTC model initiation):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-875\" src=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi-300x200.png\" alt=\"20160604 8_maxsdi\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi-450x300.png 450w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_maxsdi.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Supercell Detection Index (maximum SDI of all ensemble members) for 14 UTC<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_upssdi.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-876\" src=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_upssdi-300x200.png\" alt=\"20160604 8_upssdi\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_upssdi-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_upssdi-450x300.png 450w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-8_upssdi.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Fraction of 20 ensemble members exceeding a threshold for the SDI: more than 90 % in the correct 40&#215;40 km box, while the rest of the domain was correctly modelled free of such an intense development.<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-Radar1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-881\" src=\"http:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-Radar1-300x272.png\" alt=\"20160604 Radar\" width=\"300\" height=\"272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-Radar1-300x272.png 300w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-Radar1-330x300.png 330w, https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/20160604-Radar1.png 892w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>High resolution visible satellite and radar overlay of reflectivity and Mesocyclone Detections at 14:05 UTC.<\/p>\n<p>An interesting example for the potential of high resolution ensembles that we found in the very first hours of this years&#8217; Testbed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Saturday unorganized convection was dominating in a low-shear environment, but a few cells became severe and some of them produced large hail according to the ESWD. One outstanding development occured in the border region of the southernmost Netherlands and &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/?p=867\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-essl-testbed-2016"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=867"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":883,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867\/revisions\/883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/testbed\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}