{"id":14115,"date":"2023-11-29T16:29:46","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T15:29:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/?p=14115"},"modified":"2023-11-29T16:56:53","modified_gmt":"2023-11-29T15:56:53","slug":"new-study-more-very-large-hail-in-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/new-study-more-very-large-hail-in-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"New study: More (very) large hail in most of Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new study<\/a> by ESSL, Adam Mickiewicz University<\/a>, NSSL<\/a>, and the Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin<\/a>, lead-authored by ESSL researcher Francesco Battaglioli, has been published in the AMS Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the study, entitled “Modelled Multidecadal Trend of Lightning and (Very) Large Hail in Europe and North America (1950-2021)\u201d they reconstructed the climatology of lightning and (very) large hail in Europe and North America since 1950 using statistical models (AR-CHaMo) trained with about 24 million lightning observations and more than 44000 hail reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Left: Mean modeled annual and seasonal number of hours with hail of 5 cm or larger in a 0.25 x 0.25\u00b0 box.
Right: Change in the annual number of hours with very large hail per decade. Significant trends (p<0.05) are hatched.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

They found that, across Europe, large (\u2265 2 cm) and very large (\u2265 5 cm) hail is most common across northern Italy, south-western France, and eastern Spain. Hail frequency has increased across large parts of Europe. This increase is caused by rising humidity in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"

Left: Mean modeled annual and seasonal number of hours with hail in a 0.25 x 0.25\u00b0 box.
Right: Change in the annual number of hours with hail per decade. Significant trends (p<0.05) are hatched. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In North America, hail\nis most common across the U.S. Great Plains. Unlike Europe, the modelled hail\nfrequency has only increased in certain areas, while it decreased in others.\nAreas with increasing hail include the High Plains of Colorado and Central Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Modelled time series of hail across Northern Italy and Central Oklahoma.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Focusing on two hail-prone areas, northern Italy and central Oklahoma, temporal changes in large hail frequency can be shown using \u201cHail Stripes\u201d, much like those used to illustrate temperature changes, first by Ed Hawkins. These stripes show that, across northern Italy, very large hail is now 3 times more likely than it was in the 1950s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"

Modeled seasonal cycles of large and very large hail for three different periods (1950\u201373,
1974\u201397, 1998\u20132021). <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Since 1950, the season\nin which large hail occurs has lengthened across Northern Italy, especially because\nof an earlier start in Spring.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Experimental lightning and hail forecasts, with hail observations overlaid,
based on AR-CHaMo, available at https:\/\/stormforecast.eu<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The AR-CHaMo models also\nhave important applications in hail forecasting and are used for experimental real-time\nforecasts available at the website stormforecast.eu<\/a>.\nThe so-called Convective Available Potential Energy, a parameter often used by\nforecasters, was shown to be of limited value. Instead, the part of this\npotential energy released high in the storm cloud at temperatures below -10 \u00b0C\nwas found to be a much better predictor for large hail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This work was funded by the German Ministry of Research and Education (BMBF) within the project CHECC, part of the ClimXtreme Research Programme. Stormforecast.eu has been developed in the Project PreCAST supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study by ESSL, Adam Mickiewicz University, NSSL, and the Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin, lead-authored by ESSL researcher Francesco Battaglioli, has been published in the AMS Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology In the study, entitled “Modelled Multidecadal Trend of … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14115"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14115\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14131,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14115\/revisions\/14131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.essl.org\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}